* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 106 92 83 74 60 50 46 35 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 106 92 83 74 60 50 46 35 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 115 107 94 80 69 51 42 35 27 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 33 19 5 15 10 18 38 52 70 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 15 13 6 1 2 2 14 19 17 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 256 248 249 271 331 300 213 198 215 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.1 25.9 25.9 25.4 24.0 22.8 20.3 17.4 13.5 13.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 138 125 125 118 103 93 70 68 69 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3 -0.1 0.3 2.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 52 54 56 56 57 47 37 26 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 32 33 29 26 23 24 21 23 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 105 112 108 97 51 81 34 5 -20 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 6 -23 1 -15 7 72 80 61 23 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 58 43 42 47 24 -3 -7 -4 9 -64 -78 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 836 864 975 1103 1267 1410 1719 1450 954 610 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 24.1 26.0 27.7 29.3 31.3 33.6 37.4 42.7 48.5 54.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 167.7 167.1 167.2 167.3 167.3 165.9 162.9 158.2 152.4 145.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 18 17 13 11 18 28 33 36 35 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -21. -32. -44. -54. -62. -67. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -17. -16. -16. -16. -14. -16. -23. -36. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 13. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -23. -32. -40. -55. -65. -69. -80. -89.-103.-105.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 22.2 168.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 651.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX