* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 72 71 69 66 62 55 51 50 47 42 V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 72 71 69 66 62 55 51 50 47 42 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 70 68 66 65 64 60 56 54 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 19 16 13 7 2 9 12 15 8 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 2 0 -5 -1 3 6 8 4 1 1 9 SHEAR DIR 220 229 204 192 178 34 1 357 352 328 296 283 287 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.5 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 112 108 106 107 109 109 106 102 101 102 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 97 93 91 88 88 89 88 86 85 87 93 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 53 45 40 41 42 44 49 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 42 44 43 40 37 35 35 34 33 34 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 134 129 128 104 98 88 71 55 1 -16 -11 21 52 200 MB DIV 44 59 51 -19 -4 3 -19 21 6 -12 17 -16 -8 700-850 TADV 5 10 10 7 0 1 4 12 13 2 10 1 4 LAND (KM) 1585 1469 1354 1249 1144 990 957 1014 1106 1167 1111 1188 1373 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.0 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.6 37.0 36.7 36.2 36.1 36.7 36.1 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.3 57.4 57.6 57.8 58.1 57.7 56.8 55.6 54.3 53.0 51.2 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 9 5 3 4 5 6 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -15. -19. -20. -23. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.9 57.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 16.6% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.2% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 73 72 71 69 66 62 55 51 50 47 42 18HR AGO 70 69 71 70 69 67 64 60 53 49 48 45 40 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 64 62 59 55 48 44 43 40 35 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 57 54 50 43 39 38 35 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT