* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 100 91 84 76 61 51 39 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 100 91 84 76 61 51 39 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 110 100 88 76 66 50 40 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 31 20 8 5 15 8 20 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 18 11 2 4 0 8 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 250 248 208 275 343 242 197 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.0 25.7 25.6 24.6 23.4 21.7 17.8 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 127 123 120 110 98 84 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 54 56 55 57 52 49 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 32 31 28 24 21 21 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 104 100 96 89 71 50 27 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 -18 -7 -4 10 31 65 84 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 22 24 25 12 -13 -30 -106 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 776 827 925 1041 1164 1317 1587 1633 1033 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.8 27.7 29.0 30.3 32.4 36.0 41.0 46.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 167.1 166.8 166.5 166.8 167.0 166.4 163.8 159.9 155.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 16 13 12 16 25 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 19 CX,CY: 8/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -12. -22. -33. -44. -53. -58. -61. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. -10. -14. -14. -13. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -22. -24. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -26. -34. -49. -59. -71. -91. -94. -97.-100.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 23.9 167.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 627.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX