* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 88 75 65 57 45 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 88 75 65 57 45 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 89 78 67 58 46 39 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 14 10 7 10 4 15 40 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 22 14 2 1 1 5 14 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 228 198 297 335 295 194 194 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.1 23.7 22.5 21.2 17.1 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 116 104 100 90 79 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 58 55 55 57 47 37 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 31 28 27 24 24 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 105 97 90 64 73 31 2 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 6 -5 13 16 68 86 57 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 29 18 13 0 -16 -13 0 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 807 926 1061 1175 1294 1423 1735 1426 826 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.6 29.2 30.4 31.6 33.9 37.6 42.9 49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.5 166.7 166.8 167.1 167.3 165.5 162.6 158.5 153.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 14 12 12 18 26 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 19 CX,CY: 3/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -12. -22. -31. -39. -47. -51. -54. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -5. -10. -22. -25. -26. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -14. -23. -24. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -25. -35. -43. -55. -60. -74. -94. -96. -96. -96. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 25.9 166.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 555.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX