* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 73 61 52 44 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 73 61 52 44 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 73 63 54 48 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 7 8 10 8 15 27 44 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 4 2 1 -1 10 8 16 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 189 292 326 328 210 196 205 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.2 23.7 23.4 23.1 21.4 18.1 13.8 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 101 97 95 81 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 56 57 58 54 51 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 29 28 25 23 21 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 91 76 55 75 40 18 -40 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -9 4 10 50 83 85 53 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 38 20 10 1 -19 -39 -108 -63 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 911 1050 1197 1283 1374 1640 1534 956 630 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 29.4 30.9 32.0 33.0 36.5 41.9 48.0 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 166.1 166.4 166.7 166.5 166.4 163.8 159.4 153.8 147.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 11 15 26 34 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 20 CX,CY: 2/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -25. -31. -36. -40. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -3. -11. -29. -35. -38. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -5. -3. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 12. 11. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -11. -19. -29. -31. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -14. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -24. -33. -41. -48. -59. -78.-104.-111.-115.-118.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 27.9 166.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX