* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 58 48 42 39 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 58 48 42 39 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 59 51 46 43 39 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 13 9 25 43 66 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 0 11 17 11 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 299 324 321 269 199 189 221 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.8 23.7 23.4 22.7 20.4 16.7 13.2 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 101 100 97 91 71 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 54 57 55 50 39 30 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 27 25 24 25 22 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 77 53 82 79 47 21 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 1 11 57 63 86 66 25 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 15 2 -8 -5 -32 6 -2 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1141 1249 1361 1414 1475 1761 1348 783 408 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.9 32.1 33.1 34.0 37.7 43.6 50.1 56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 167.4 167.5 167.7 167.1 166.5 163.4 158.6 152.9 146.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 16 29 36 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 19 CX,CY: -8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 931 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -21. -25. -27. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -6. -20. -44. -55. -62. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -13. -13. -11. -8. -4. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 17. 16. 14. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -16. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -22. -28. -31. -35. -45. -65. -85. -94.-100.-100.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.7 167.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX