* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 51 44 40 38 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 51 44 40 38 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 51 44 40 36 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 12 12 9 13 33 44 77 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 9 8 12 -8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 336 322 282 215 196 207 230 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.7 23.6 22.6 22.2 18.4 13.9 12.6 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 100 100 91 89 69 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -51.6 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 54 54 52 52 44 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 23 22 20 18 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 63 86 75 60 43 3 25 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 14 52 72 65 85 72 24 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -1 -7 -16 -31 -121 -72 -72 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1251 1327 1411 1483 1582 1635 978 649 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.5 32.6 34.1 35.6 41.0 47.4 53.4 59.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 168.0 167.8 166.5 165.1 160.8 155.3 149.4 143.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 19 25 35 37 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -4. -21. -46. -61. -69. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 21. 20. 17. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -18. -23. -25. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -9. -10. -13. -17. -23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -20. -22. -30. -42. -69. -92.-105.-117.-121.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.4 168.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.05 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX