* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 39 38 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 39 38 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 48 43 40 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 13 11 17 38 57 78 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 5 9 20 7 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 334 314 255 230 190 203 237 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.6 23.3 23.0 22.4 19.0 14.1 12.9 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 98 96 95 90 68 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 51 53 49 48 37 25 30 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 21 21 23 20 15 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 82 76 64 57 34 -27 4 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 30 52 46 59 54 40 6 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 4 26 18 -57 -89 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1297 1331 1370 1431 1513 1758 1059 747 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.7 35.0 39.9 46.6 52.9 58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.3 167.9 167.4 166.2 164.9 161.1 155.5 148.1 139.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 12 17 23 34 39 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -7. -26. -51. -67. -76. -74. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 16. 24. 27. 25. 23. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -2. -5. -10. -11. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -16. -17. -25. -38. -54. -76. -88. -98.-100.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.9 168.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX