* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WALAKA CP012018 10/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 35 33 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 35 33 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 32 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 15 26 37 55 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 7 9 5 14 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 306 245 214 199 197 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.2 22.6 21.6 19.6 14.7 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 96 92 83 68 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 45 42 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 21 21 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 69 64 48 55 10 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 57 45 57 78 48 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -10 -27 -44 -47 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1373 1422 1486 1670 1868 1116 684 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 33.1 34.2 36.6 39.0 45.8 52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.2 167.3 166.3 164.6 162.8 157.3 150.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 21 28 34 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 982 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -9. -28. -48. -64. -74. -72. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 19. 16. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -9. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -13. -23. -34. -50. -66. -79. -88. -92. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.9 168.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012018 WALAKA 10/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX