* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222018 10/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 62 66 67 69 66 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 62 66 67 69 66 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 40 45 49 52 55 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 10 12 11 4 6 3 5 4 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 96 106 117 129 126 139 106 114 179 179 212 262 273 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 156 157 160 162 165 165 164 162 161 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 62 61 62 62 64 60 60 59 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 47 65 64 62 57 54 27 3 -15 -2 2 -2 -3 200 MB DIV 64 88 83 73 79 72 69 44 18 31 25 -1 24 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 3 2 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 121 127 134 141 149 172 204 236 292 315 346 383 444 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.0 104.2 104.3 104.3 104.2 104.1 104.5 105.4 106.1 106.7 107.5 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 22 22 21 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 345 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 32. 36. 37. 39. 36. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 103.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 27.6% 24.1% 16.3% 10.9% 20.9% 31.7% 43.8% Logistic: 6.5% 23.4% 16.4% 8.3% 4.6% 5.0% 2.8% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% Consensus: 6.2% 17.9% 13.8% 8.3% 5.2% 8.7% 11.8% 16.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX