* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTWO EP222018 10/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 42 43 43 42 41 41 42 41 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 42 43 43 42 41 41 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 40 41 40 39 40 40 41 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 18 17 11 8 7 9 15 15 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 -2 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 118 119 123 145 166 205 178 196 181 216 224 228 211 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 156 156 156 160 161 166 165 164 163 162 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 10 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 62 62 57 56 50 46 42 44 46 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 55 58 48 20 9 -11 13 15 28 21 39 200 MB DIV 85 80 90 83 71 65 25 16 35 6 28 25 23 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 1 7 4 6 0 LAND (KM) 124 128 131 130 130 152 152 173 232 275 279 299 313 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.3 104.3 104.4 104.4 104.8 105.0 105.8 107.0 107.8 108.1 108.4 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 0 1 1 1 2 2 5 5 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 23 26 29 29 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.5 104.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 24.9% 22.9% 15.7% 10.2% 19.8% 22.2% 34.2% Logistic: 6.8% 9.8% 10.3% 6.2% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% Consensus: 6.7% 12.3% 11.3% 7.3% 4.8% 7.1% 7.6% 12.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TWENTYTWO 10/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX