* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 54 56 55 52 48 45 43 43 41 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 54 56 55 52 48 45 43 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 53 54 56 56 56 54 52 50 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 17 13 10 9 15 15 14 17 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 0 -2 2 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 122 126 147 172 178 163 167 184 213 213 220 225 258 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 157 159 163 162 159 157 157 156 156 157 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 56 55 53 48 49 49 49 50 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 51 38 31 17 -8 22 22 30 10 18 24 200 MB DIV 70 80 65 56 53 16 2 34 9 13 37 19 50 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 0 3 1 5 3 9 -2 4 LAND (KM) 107 101 93 98 103 133 153 191 239 272 288 284 266 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.6 104.6 104.7 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.6 107.3 107.9 108.2 108.2 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 19 19 22 24 26 28 26 25 26 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -2. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 104.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.16 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.60 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 29.3% 26.0% 17.8% 12.3% 22.8% 30.1% 13.9% Logistic: 7.8% 12.5% 10.7% 6.6% 9.9% 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% Consensus: 8.2% 15.6% 12.6% 8.2% 7.5% 8.0% 10.2% 5.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX