* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 51 52 53 52 49 45 42 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 51 52 53 52 49 45 42 40 40 39 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 53 53 53 52 50 46 43 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 14 8 9 7 17 20 16 22 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 6 2 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 170 179 161 188 216 187 215 216 232 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 161 162 162 159 157 157 156 155 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 51 49 45 46 44 51 57 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 39 38 33 10 -9 7 3 16 7 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 89 69 40 33 14 17 8 8 5 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 -3 -1 1 2 8 0 5 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 39 29 43 67 110 144 194 250 271 249 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.5 104.7 104.9 105.2 105.6 106.1 106.5 107.0 107.5 107.6 107.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 24 27 30 32 32 28 25 25 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.6 104.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.40 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.55 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.49 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 30.5% 26.7% 18.3% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.0% 6.2% 3.8% 2.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 6.1% 11.6% 11.0% 7.4% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX