* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TARA EP222018 10/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 27 27 29 32 34 37 38 39 42 43 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 27 27 29 32 34 37 38 39 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 30 28 26 25 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 7 6 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 169 168 204 193 187 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 161 161 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 48 47 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 11 -7 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 50 32 23 23 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 0 2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 39 35 41 49 56 81 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.8 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.5 105.7 106.2 106.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 28 29 31 34 37 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 104.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 23.6% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 8.3% 7.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222018 TARA 10/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX