* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYTHR EP232018 10/19/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 45 49 50 51 53 54 53 53 53 V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 45 49 50 51 53 54 53 53 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 42 43 45 46 45 43 41 39 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 10 12 18 18 20 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 3 0 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 346 329 1 9 10 356 340 336 350 352 334 288 237 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.3 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 144 144 148 147 158 158 156 158 153 155 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 76 80 78 78 76 77 75 78 78 81 79 78 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 6 -3 -16 -12 3 13 19 32 26 32 23 200 MB DIV 47 28 32 38 27 44 52 77 88 97 95 102 119 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 4 5 17 LAND (KM) 103 127 169 207 245 312 301 297 296 259 175 107 37 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.3 13.9 15.0 16.5 18.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.6 93.3 93.6 94.0 94.9 96.4 98.1 99.9 101.6 103.3 104.5 105.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 4 5 8 8 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 10 28 46 23 18 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 92.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 TWENTYTHR 10/19/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 29.8% 25.7% 17.6% 11.7% 20.9% 22.3% 22.3% Logistic: 12.2% 52.6% 32.7% 27.3% 17.2% 42.9% 51.8% 40.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 9.8% 28.6% 19.6% 15.0% 9.7% 21.4% 24.9% 20.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 TWENTYTHR 10/19/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX