* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/20/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 43 44 46 47 52 54 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 43 44 46 47 52 54 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 42 42 41 39 38 38 40 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 9 13 15 19 10 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 3 2 0 -4 -2 6 1 SHEAR DIR 315 338 352 358 1 330 344 355 355 3 23 284 215 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.7 27.8 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 145 146 150 141 158 157 155 153 156 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 5 6 5 7 6 10 7 9 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 76 76 75 78 76 75 69 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -3 -21 -25 -10 -24 -22 15 35 27 29 28 200 MB DIV 33 38 40 30 25 26 35 30 63 64 78 75 81 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 2 5 3 3 1 0 -3 0 12 LAND (KM) 99 131 168 222 276 342 341 318 287 217 99 20 94 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.7 13.2 14.2 15.6 17.3 19.1 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.9 93.4 93.8 94.3 95.5 96.9 98.6 100.4 102.0 103.4 104.9 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 12 35 43 18 21 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 17. 19. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.5 92.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 28.1% 25.4% 17.5% 11.4% 20.9% 22.0% 18.7% Logistic: 5.7% 28.6% 15.2% 11.3% 3.1% 31.5% 39.2% 40.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 7.3% 19.4% 13.6% 9.6% 4.9% 17.5% 20.4% 19.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX