* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/20/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 44 48 54 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 44 48 54 57 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 32 32 32 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 4 2 7 13 18 18 16 6 10 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 2 0 4 0 -2 -2 4 7 5 SHEAR DIR 354 7 16 36 357 339 355 7 6 20 354 219 224 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.6 27.9 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 148 150 142 154 158 158 160 157 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 78 77 73 79 78 81 73 67 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 5 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -11 -16 -15 -20 -27 -5 39 21 23 18 37 200 MB DIV 37 33 34 26 18 19 22 47 65 88 93 61 46 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 4 5 6 3 3 0 0 -4 10 7 LAND (KM) 84 117 151 224 296 335 343 326 275 181 88 90 205 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.7 13.3 12.7 12.9 13.6 14.8 16.4 18.3 20.1 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.2 93.7 94.3 94.9 96.5 98.2 99.9 101.5 103.1 104.7 106.5 108.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 8 6 3 7 28 46 26 19 35 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 23. 26. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 22. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 92.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 22.0% 20.7% 14.2% 8.8% 17.4% 18.4% 11.7% Logistic: 2.1% 19.8% 9.2% 6.2% 1.4% 17.2% 3.6% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 14.1% 10.0% 6.8% 3.4% 11.5% 7.3% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX