* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYFOU EP242018 10/20/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 60 68 79 81 80 79 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 60 68 79 81 80 79 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 59 62 64 62 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 5 5 5 2 4 3 1 4 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -9 -8 -6 -4 -4 0 2 3 9 14 9 6 SHEAR DIR 59 80 105 116 168 207 207 176 172 275 218 201 223 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 159 156 150 142 145 142 139 140 139 138 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 76 76 70 67 64 58 54 49 49 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 15 18 21 25 25 23 23 18 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -20 -14 -11 -22 -12 2 24 43 57 55 42 200 MB DIV 47 39 45 61 85 83 51 49 35 65 41 38 42 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 2 1 4 7 5 LAND (KM) 370 380 392 392 389 378 378 397 424 440 411 302 180 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 20 19 19 18 16 16 15 12 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 28. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 19. 20. 18. 17. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 30. 38. 49. 51. 50. 49. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 104.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 24.1% 16.9% 14.9% 0.0% 19.1% 22.7% 42.3% Logistic: 1.7% 15.1% 7.2% 3.3% 3.0% 22.3% 75.1% 21.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.6% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 3.2% 15.2% 8.6% 6.2% 1.1% 13.9% 32.6% 21.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 12.0% 16.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX