* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 37 38 39 42 45 49 52 56 58 56 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 37 38 39 42 45 49 52 56 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 35 37 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 4 4 14 16 18 16 8 4 11 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 0 1 3 2 0 -2 0 9 3 8 SHEAR DIR 12 34 44 23 355 357 358 6 7 15 354 207 205 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.5 29.0 29.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 149 153 158 157 158 150 155 157 144 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 7 6 8 6 9 7 9 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 75 75 76 78 76 69 66 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 -14 -23 -23 -30 -4 27 23 10 9 35 59 200 MB DIV 34 37 30 23 18 37 40 60 61 56 46 62 65 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 4 6 2 0 0 0 -10 7 7 -5 LAND (KM) 97 150 203 249 267 327 304 263 211 116 52 174 48 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.3 13.0 13.6 14.7 16.1 17.6 19.3 21.1 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.8 94.4 95.3 96.1 97.9 99.4 101.0 102.7 104.2 105.5 107.2 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 8 8 8 20 39 31 17 22 40 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 21. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 93.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 19.5% 18.9% 12.9% 7.7% 15.7% 17.0% 11.8% Logistic: 3.0% 26.6% 12.0% 8.5% 3.1% 15.8% 3.8% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 15.8% 10.3% 7.1% 3.6% 10.5% 7.0% 6.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/20/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX