* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYFOU EP242018 10/20/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 54 61 78 92 96 94 89 83 74 61 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 54 61 78 92 96 94 89 83 74 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 46 51 63 77 90 95 91 84 73 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 7 4 4 1 6 6 5 5 10 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -9 -7 -6 -5 -3 2 0 2 9 10 8 10 SHEAR DIR 77 99 92 115 151 99 86 137 178 155 245 217 212 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 154 150 151 147 143 141 139 139 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 72 70 67 65 58 55 50 49 53 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 18 21 23 25 25 24 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -16 -6 -8 -17 -16 3 14 22 19 25 44 39 200 MB DIV 37 41 59 83 87 88 50 51 33 45 29 43 64 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 5 6 0 LAND (KM) 457 470 488 495 493 476 478 487 497 477 427 304 198 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.2 19.0 20.3 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.3 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.4 109.6 109.5 109.1 108.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 27 24 23 21 18 15 13 12 14 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 46.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 18. 18. 11. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 21. 17. 8. 2. -4. -8. -11. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 26. 43. 57. 61. 59. 54. 48. 39. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 105.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 56.5% 34.2% 20.6% 14.7% 47.6% 62.0% 50.1% Logistic: 34.2% 79.8% 62.7% 53.0% 65.3% 76.3% 78.4% 20.4% Bayesian: 4.7% 47.9% 24.5% 10.3% 5.8% 24.9% 14.3% 0.0% Consensus: 19.1% 61.4% 40.5% 27.9% 28.6% 49.6% 51.6% 23.5% DTOPS: 9.0% 56.0% 40.0% 21.0% 8.0% 45.0% 55.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 TWENTYFOU 10/20/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX