* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/20/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 62 71 80 102 112 107 100 83 56 43 34 V (KT) LAND 45 53 62 71 80 102 112 107 100 83 56 43 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 60 68 76 93 105 106 96 80 64 58 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 5 5 2 2 3 9 8 12 26 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -7 -5 -6 -6 -3 2 4 0 3 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 96 94 101 130 128 358 215 215 130 203 239 226 225 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 151 146 148 143 142 139 140 154 155 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 72 71 68 62 60 56 50 43 43 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 17 18 23 26 24 26 19 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -6 -11 -20 -18 -7 9 11 18 18 29 21 -5 200 MB DIV 56 73 97 92 95 102 63 58 61 63 35 18 24 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 -3 -4 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 424 440 461 463 463 438 420 406 387 343 300 222 -22 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.4 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.8 19.8 21.3 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.0 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.7 108.3 108.5 108.5 108.5 108.5 107.7 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 5 4 2 2 4 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 24 23 22 21 15 13 14 21 20 31 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 60.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 12. 17. 8. -10. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 11. 22. 28. 23. 11. 2. -5. -11. -15. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 35. 57. 67. 62. 55. 38. 11. -2. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 105.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/20/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 13.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 12.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 9.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 10.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 8.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 -8.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 84% is 14.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.1% 72.9% 63.7% 53.0% 38.4% 68.3% 84.5% 51.7% Logistic: 40.1% 79.5% 67.6% 59.8% 66.2% 81.7% 83.1% 20.9% Bayesian: 19.6% 64.1% 53.7% 34.3% 26.5% 47.7% 23.9% 0.4% Consensus: 29.6% 72.1% 61.7% 49.0% 43.7% 65.9% 63.8% 24.3% DTOPS: 44.0% 96.0% 92.0% 69.0% 68.0% 93.0% 73.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/20/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX