* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 45 48 52 55 59 60 62 63 64 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 45 48 52 55 59 60 62 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 45 45 46 47 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 13 14 17 12 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 22 19 10 14 12 17 43 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.7 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.1 29.4 28.7 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 151 158 163 163 155 158 150 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 78 79 78 77 68 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -21 -21 -21 20 26 18 -1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 35 42 42 49 75 106 97 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 137 141 171 178 200 173 144 71 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.5 15.5 16.6 17.6 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.4 97.2 98.1 99.1 100.8 102.3 103.4 104.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 18 21 30 27 16 15 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 10. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 95.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.41 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 19.5% 18.6% 12.6% 7.6% 16.8% 18.8% 16.9% Logistic: 1.2% 7.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5% 2.4% 4.9% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 3.2% 9.0% 7.0% 4.6% 2.7% 6.4% 8.0% 6.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX