* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/21/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 86 92 96 98 92 80 56 49 39 37 34 V (KT) LAND 70 79 86 92 96 98 92 80 56 41 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 80 87 92 94 91 82 68 57 42 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 10 9 5 9 16 23 28 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -4 -3 -2 1 0 6 0 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 180 187 153 174 222 179 186 218 226 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.2 27.9 28.5 29.3 29.3 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 142 141 143 144 141 148 157 159 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 72 71 63 59 56 51 47 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 23 25 25 22 17 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -17 -21 -18 -5 13 25 33 61 51 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 92 90 90 65 66 70 86 44 18 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 3 2 -1 -1 9 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 393 369 349 329 316 298 251 198 126 -82 -416 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.4 19.5 20.5 21.5 23.2 25.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.6 106.9 107.1 107.3 107.7 107.9 107.6 106.8 105.3 103.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 9 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 16 14 13 17 29 40 32 37 21 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 5. -1. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 22. 26. 28. 22. 10. -14. -21. -31. -33. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.0 106.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 15.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 11.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 9.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 10.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 10.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 -7.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 67.1% 66.6% 62.0% 56.6% 41.2% 50.5% 36.4% 11.3% Logistic: 56.3% 68.4% 57.5% 51.6% 51.5% 54.2% 35.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 55.7% 29.7% 32.8% 26.6% 4.1% 6.5% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 59.7% 54.9% 50.8% 44.9% 32.3% 37.1% 24.1% 4.2% DTOPS: 50.0% 78.0% 60.0% 43.0% 36.0% 41.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX