* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/21/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 48 52 57 62 64 66 68 69 70 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 48 52 57 60 40 32 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 46 47 48 48 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 12 11 13 15 12 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 5 4 2 2 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 15 24 24 13 13 5 78 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.6 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 159 162 164 161 153 157 155 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 6 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 79 77 77 73 63 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -21 -26 19 39 24 14 2 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 47 39 55 81 62 98 120 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 0 -4 5 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 135 156 177 185 205 164 67 0 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.9 17.4 18.7 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.3 98.1 99.0 99.9 101.5 102.7 103.8 104.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 19 25 31 17 12 37 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 19. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 96.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 20.6% 20.1% 14.0% 0.0% 17.4% 20.4% 25.2% Logistic: 1.5% 9.7% 3.5% 2.0% 0.4% 2.9% 2.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% Consensus: 3.2% 10.5% 7.9% 5.3% 0.1% 6.8% 7.7% 9.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX