* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 31 36 43 50 56 59 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 30 31 36 43 44 35 31 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 29 28 28 28 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 14 15 13 12 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 4 3 3 0 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 38 48 35 14 14 11 96 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 160 158 157 154 155 155 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 79 78 78 76 76 67 63 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -19 2 33 36 19 -4 -3 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 32 43 58 68 77 95 78 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 186 207 240 245 250 173 59 -5 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.4 14.7 16.0 17.5 18.9 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.4 98.3 99.1 99.9 100.7 101.9 103.0 104.0 105.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 19 26 38 32 16 12 39 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. 1. 8. 15. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 97.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 16.6% 8.7% 8.6% 0.0% 13.0% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 6.3% 3.1% 2.9% 0.0% 4.6% 6.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/21/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX