* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/21/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 104 108 110 109 101 88 65 55 46 36 33 30 V (KT) LAND 95 104 108 110 109 101 88 65 39 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 102 106 106 102 92 79 66 40 31 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 12 15 26 27 43 49 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 3 1 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 156 171 215 208 190 185 206 230 232 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 144 143 143 155 156 158 161 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 5 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 66 63 61 63 58 52 49 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 25 25 26 24 20 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -7 2 7 17 25 36 69 73 30 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 113 74 64 63 72 93 79 21 12 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 1 -3 -5 16 0 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 329 317 295 273 206 170 38 -208 -479 -219 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.9 21.0 22.5 24.2 25.8 27.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.2 107.4 107.6 107.7 107.6 107.2 106.2 104.6 102.3 99.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 10 12 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 17 13 14 21 36 40 28 19 33 1 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. -1. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 15. 14. 6. -7. -30. -40. -49. -59. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.8 106.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.25 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 9.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.56 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 42.7% 35.8% 30.2% 18.7% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 49.7% 43.9% 35.0% 30.5% 22.9% 19.0% 10.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 55.7% 28.6% 24.4% 23.8% 6.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 49.5% 38.4% 31.7% 28.2% 16.2% 13.5% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 53.0% 64.0% 42.0% 29.0% 20.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/21/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX