* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/22/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 129 130 124 117 101 80 58 44 31 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 129 130 124 117 101 80 45 33 29 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 120 127 125 118 109 92 75 44 32 28 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 11 12 11 19 26 41 46 52 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 -2 -1 5 4 3 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 159 187 209 203 190 200 197 235 232 231 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.4 28.1 27.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 143 150 157 161 160 144 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 5 7 3 4 0 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 66 64 62 62 58 53 45 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 27 26 25 21 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 1 0 13 21 19 49 65 45 27 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 72 55 54 50 74 76 28 8 0 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 0 -1 -8 17 -3 -14 -22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 306 289 275 243 213 177 78 -201 -454 -287 -208 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.5 22.0 23.9 25.9 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.3 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.4 106.4 104.4 102.0 100.3 99.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 11 14 12 6 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 16 23 32 44 29 30 32 1 1 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -27. -35. -42. -47. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -16. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 11. 15. 15. 13. 8. 3. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -14. -23. -27. -29. -29. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 10. 4. -3. -19. -40. -62. -76. -89.-101.-106.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.5 107.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.02 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 378.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.43 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.0% 28.4% 21.1% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.9% 17.1% 14.3% 12.5% 8.9% 6.8% 2.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 27.6% 15.5% 11.9% 10.4% 3.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 34.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX