* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 49 53 58 61 61 61 61 62 62 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 49 53 45 35 31 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 46 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 18 13 20 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 0 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 31 24 20 16 8 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.3 28.8 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 158 152 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 76 76 68 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 39 39 26 14 -18 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 54 52 63 76 92 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 266 263 212 167 39 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.6 16.5 18.1 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.3 100.1 101.0 101.9 102.8 103.7 104.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 11 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 32 44 38 25 14 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.9 99.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.14 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.29 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 23.8% 20.7% 14.1% 9.5% 18.3% 21.4% 29.8% Logistic: 2.1% 11.8% 4.7% 2.8% 0.9% 4.9% 11.4% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 9.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 2.5% 5.4% Consensus: 4.3% 15.1% 9.2% 5.7% 3.5% 8.2% 11.8% 15.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/22/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX