* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/22/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 142 138 129 119 101 73 59 48 44 38 33 30 V (KT) LAND 135 142 138 129 119 101 62 38 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 135 138 131 121 111 91 61 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 14 11 10 13 10 23 35 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 7 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 229 221 201 195 233 224 254 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 144 144 147 158 161 165 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 6 6 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 66 66 65 63 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 24 23 19 5 8 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 18 21 13 16 54 49 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 64 59 56 66 92 73 33 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 0 1 0 3 37 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 278 249 220 185 160 117 -68 -409 -218 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.1 21.2 22.9 25.0 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.2 106.6 105.2 102.7 99.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 6 8 13 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 23 35 43 31 38 29 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -9. -12. -19. -27. -37. -47. -54. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. -11. -9. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 12. 15. 14. 11. 6. 1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -16. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -19. -19. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 3. -6. -16. -34. -62. -76. -87. -91. -97.-102.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 17.9 107.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.3% 8.2% 7.0% 6.2% 5.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.5% 9.1% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/22/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX