* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/22/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 40 46 49 53 56 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 40 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 32 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 14 11 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 1 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 16 5 23 39 112 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 154 152 151 152 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 68 66 58 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 23 13 -2 -16 4 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 54 88 86 82 51 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -5 3 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 227 180 150 69 19 -54 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.6 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.8 102.4 103.0 103.5 104.4 105.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 33 23 14 11 36 21 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 101.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/22/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 23.1% 19.8% 13.1% 8.6% 19.3% 21.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 9.8% 4.0% 2.3% 0.7% 8.4% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 11.1% 8.0% 5.1% 3.1% 9.3% 7.5% 0.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/22/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX