* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICENTE EP232018 10/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 30 31 36 41 47 54 57 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 7 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 32 20 26 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 155 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 6 -7 -11 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 80 89 90 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 89 33 -52 -88 -137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.3 102.9 103.3 103.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 12 32 33 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 22. 27. 30. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 101.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP232018 VICENTE 10/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.63 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 25.2% 23.4% 15.9% 10.4% 20.6% 23.6% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.6% 2.6% 1.4% 0.1% 9.0% 3.2% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.5% 10.0% 8.7% 5.8% 3.5% 9.9% 8.9% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP232018 VICENTE 10/23/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX