* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 110 101 90 78 65 59 54 52 50 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 120 110 101 80 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 120 109 99 88 58 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 23 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 193 215 211 221 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 153 157 159 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 68 66 67 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 39 52 55 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 64 71 100 82 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 4 -1 -2 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 158 120 -19 -164 -378 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.9 23.8 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.1 106.8 105.8 104.8 101.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 10 13 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 48 33 22 22 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -27. -25. -21. -17. -16. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -7. -14. -15. -14. -17. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -30. -42. -55. -61. -66. -68. -70. -69. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 20.6 107.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX