* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 101 92 82 74 62 55 49 46 44 43 43 40 V (KT) LAND 110 101 79 58 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 100 79 57 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 24 28 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 2 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 198 199 219 243 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 159 159 160 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 62 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 33 51 62 55 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 94 84 73 43 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -4 -3 28 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 165 74 -22 -175 -327 -391 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.7 24.6 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 106.4 105.6 104.5 103.4 101.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 13 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 28 38 30 31 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -10. -19. -26. -31. -35. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -27. -30. -29. -27. -24. -24. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -8. -5. -3. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -28. -36. -48. -55. -61. -64. -66. -66. -67. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.1 107.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 435.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX