* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 90 83 77 68 58 52 49 48 46 44 39 V (KT) LAND 105 69 50 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 70 51 40 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 31 36 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 223 240 243 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 28.3 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 162 151 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 59 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 55 52 29 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 71 43 41 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 22 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 15 -160 -335 -386 -215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 104.7 103.3 101.4 99.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 18 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 30 30 3 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -16. -23. -27. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -18. -23. -30. -34. -34. -33. -31. -32. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -28. -37. -47. -53. -56. -57. -59. -61. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 22.6 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/24/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX