* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 79 79 80 80 79 76 60 47 40 34 28 V (KT) LAND 80 80 79 79 80 80 79 76 60 47 40 34 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 81 79 77 76 68 53 44 42 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 18 13 22 36 40 51 51 44 33 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 4 3 15 22 16 10 11 11 5 SHEAR DIR 308 282 256 250 214 196 196 198 192 186 193 189 190 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.5 25.9 24.3 24.4 23.6 22.9 17.4 15.0 12.2 11.8 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 119 114 102 105 101 97 78 75 72 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 105 101 92 97 93 88 74 72 69 67 66 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.0 -55.2 -53.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -51.9 -49.2 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 3.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 56 57 48 43 55 57 57 58 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 31 34 36 41 46 41 38 38 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 66 53 72 113 188 247 233 212 225 270 207 200 MB DIV 35 59 70 76 103 59 24 27 49 52 49 43 37 700-850 TADV 1 7 19 20 26 13 -22 -20 -37 -104 -134 -58 -39 LAND (KM) 1148 1218 1290 1427 1564 1467 1092 848 958 1384 1047 523 258 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.0 27.7 28.9 30.0 33.1 37.1 41.1 44.9 48.4 51.5 54.0 55.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 58.4 58.3 57.7 57.1 54.4 50.3 45.9 41.0 34.2 25.5 18.0 12.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 13 16 23 26 26 28 31 29 23 18 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -19. -26. -33. -38. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 11. 7. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -20. -33. -40. -46. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 26.2 58.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 13.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/29/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 7( 20) 7( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 79 79 80 80 79 76 60 47 40 34 28 18HR AGO 80 79 78 78 79 79 78 75 59 46 39 33 27 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 77 77 76 73 57 44 37 31 25 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 71 70 67 51 38 31 25 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT