* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYFIV EP252018 11/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 35 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 35 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 33 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 19 15 19 18 27 23 20 16 15 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 1 -4 -3 -2 0 5 6 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 256 261 264 262 243 229 223 243 224 234 223 229 236 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 150 150 149 145 141 141 142 145 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 63 64 58 57 55 46 38 34 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 21 21 18 13 12 8 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 -4 -7 -12 -2 -5 -8 -14 -18 -16 -23 -32 200 MB DIV 100 86 55 44 65 73 47 16 9 -22 -19 -8 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 2 1 -1 -2 -2 2 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 666 619 572 532 492 389 340 321 331 392 484 560 579 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.1 107.7 107.4 107.1 106.8 106.9 107.1 107.4 108.2 109.4 110.7 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 20 17 14 14 17 17 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 2. -2. -4. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -14. -19. -23. -27. -29. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 108.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 TWENTYFIV 11/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.10 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 19.9% 11.7% 10.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 7.0% 4.0% 3.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 TWENTYFIV 11/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX