* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 34 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 15 20 23 26 32 26 18 11 14 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 0 -1 -1 1 0 4 6 5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 265 261 254 244 243 227 238 252 247 255 207 230 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 148 146 143 137 139 142 147 141 138 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 60 60 55 51 44 37 35 35 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 21 17 15 13 10 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -8 -11 -4 8 12 7 -26 -6 -28 -17 -31 -25 200 MB DIV 78 63 67 58 64 46 13 -13 -10 -17 -9 -14 -4 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 6 3 3 3 1 4 5 5 2 LAND (KM) 621 569 517 460 403 325 258 260 301 392 527 584 544 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.7 17.4 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.7 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 107.5 107.0 106.8 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.7 107.2 108.2 109.6 110.8 111.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 20 20 18 13 9 11 17 16 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 37.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. -31. -30. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 107.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX