* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 37 35 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 37 35 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 38 35 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 25 29 24 30 32 24 22 18 26 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 -2 -1 0 1 1 4 8 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 251 240 237 245 238 213 232 239 238 239 225 237 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.8 28.1 27.0 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 147 146 144 140 135 133 140 144 132 128 130 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -55.2 -54.9 -55.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 9 7 9 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 60 57 57 52 43 36 32 32 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 16 16 16 13 11 9 7 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 3 17 10 19 7 -18 -18 -21 -29 -31 -34 200 MB DIV 50 56 56 56 64 44 14 -20 -18 -16 -36 -1 10 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 5 4 0 1 0 4 4 8 4 5 LAND (KM) 527 467 408 366 325 265 246 277 362 466 549 555 554 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 106.8 106.4 106.2 106.1 106.1 106.4 107.0 108.0 109.2 110.7 111.8 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 7 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 18 18 15 11 10 15 16 13 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -5. -10. -18. -25. -31. -34. -38. -40. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.1 107.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX