* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 44 41 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 44 41 38 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 45 41 34 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 26 26 26 30 25 22 21 17 28 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -3 -1 1 1 1 3 4 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 238 236 235 237 226 216 234 229 256 246 233 237 242 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.7 28.2 28.3 27.4 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 146 147 145 142 139 139 144 147 137 136 130 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 58 58 56 49 41 34 34 36 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -15 4 17 13 19 21 -19 -9 -27 -23 -41 -32 -40 200 MB DIV 53 60 55 64 56 21 -25 -12 -27 -15 -17 5 42 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 3 3 2 3 0 5 6 7 4 5 LAND (KM) 455 405 354 311 265 251 276 322 396 527 639 663 634 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.5 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.0 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.8 106.3 107.0 108.1 109.6 111.4 112.7 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 3 2 3 4 6 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 21 21 17 14 14 17 14 13 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -7. -15. -23. -30. -36. -39. -42. -44. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 106.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX