* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 46 41 38 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 46 41 38 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 48 45 37 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 26 25 30 30 22 24 21 23 26 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 1 2 3 2 4 5 4 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 239 234 233 214 211 233 233 240 246 232 231 233 238 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.4 27.9 27.5 26.6 27.1 26.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 142 136 136 142 138 128 132 130 116 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 56 53 52 46 41 39 39 39 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 14 14 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 14 9 13 11 -2 -28 -26 -26 -32 -43 -41 -45 200 MB DIV 41 49 64 59 42 11 -5 -20 -20 -24 14 19 28 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 3 2 4 0 4 4 6 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 385 338 290 265 241 255 302 410 523 545 589 622 645 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 105.7 105.6 105.7 105.8 106.4 107.3 108.7 110.2 111.5 112.4 113.4 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 5 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 19 17 12 11 17 14 10 11 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -12. -22. -29. -37. -43. -47. -50. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.8 105.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX