* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 44 39 33 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 44 39 33 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 50 48 46 42 35 29 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 25 30 32 24 23 23 21 25 32 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 0 6 5 0 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 247 239 225 218 228 238 222 239 240 231 228 236 229 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.9 27.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 143 139 135 134 141 141 130 130 131 124 126 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.9 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 53 51 46 41 37 38 37 36 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 9 13 23 -20 -19 -37 -27 -44 -42 -57 -42 200 MB DIV 42 43 39 17 0 -20 -2 -26 -8 0 34 44 13 700-850 TADV 6 4 5 3 4 4 2 5 6 6 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 338 300 261 243 231 287 399 497 529 552 616 685 761 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 105.8 105.8 106.1 106.3 107.2 108.5 109.7 110.8 112.0 113.3 114.5 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 14 11 10 17 15 12 10 9 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -17. -24. -29. -36. -40. -44. -47. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 105.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX