* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 36 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 36 31 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 35 31 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 30 34 33 29 25 25 25 26 35 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 5 2 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 204 213 229 236 225 234 228 224 218 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.8 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 136 132 130 135 131 128 124 123 113 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 47 44 41 37 36 36 36 37 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 26 27 8 -17 -34 -42 -31 -41 -41 -55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 49 17 -4 -22 -18 -29 -3 8 31 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 4 4 3 3 2 5 4 4 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 156 161 191 221 308 401 402 446 520 599 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.7 106.1 106.6 107.1 108.3 109.7 111.0 112.1 113.2 114.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 13 10 7 8 19 13 5 4 2 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -25. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -14. -19. -24. -30. -37. -44. -49. -52. -52. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.9 105.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX