* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 37 34 28 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 33 34 30 27 26 26 29 34 38 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 219 231 237 232 239 231 225 217 222 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 134 131 133 132 129 126 124 126 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 7 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 41 38 34 33 33 34 35 34 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 4 -22 -28 -42 -36 -39 -36 -43 -59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 -1 -11 -26 -20 -23 -6 -18 17 32 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 4 1 3 2 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 148 172 207 242 339 378 415 466 544 668 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.1 106.6 107.2 107.7 108.8 110.2 111.4 112.3 113.3 114.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 8 8 12 21 7 5 5 4 1 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -22. -29. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -27. -36. -42. -48. -51. -52. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 105.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX