* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 36 33 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 36 33 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 45 42 38 32 26 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 31 29 25 24 23 26 31 36 34 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 8 5 0 -1 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 228 238 235 232 240 230 231 224 231 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.3 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 131 134 131 128 126 123 123 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -55.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 38 35 32 31 32 32 33 31 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 5 -20 -31 -31 -43 -32 -38 -32 -41 -37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -11 -26 -23 -14 -15 -5 -1 18 43 26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 0 2 5 4 4 2 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 146 165 189 228 270 369 368 394 462 513 547 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.4 108.0 109.1 110.3 111.4 112.4 113.1 113.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 9 16 19 6 5 4 3 1 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -21. -26. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -17. -25. -30. -38. -43. -48. -49. -51. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.3 105.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX