* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 40 35 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 40 35 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 45 41 38 32 27 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 26 25 23 22 23 30 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 3 6 5 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 235 236 233 235 231 224 222 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.7 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 130 134 137 132 129 128 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 7 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 38 37 34 33 31 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -24 -33 -36 -44 -40 -40 -40 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -30 -26 -13 -18 -5 -10 26 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 1 3 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 153 190 228 281 334 434 443 491 552 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.6 107.1 107.7 108.4 109.7 110.9 112.0 113.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 6 9 15 13 8 6 6 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -24. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -15. -19. -26. -31. -38. -43. -46. -47. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.4 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX