* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 34 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 34 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 42 38 34 30 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 25 25 24 22 25 31 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 5 6 4 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 229 230 236 234 222 221 216 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.4 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 131 133 133 133 132 136 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 36 33 32 31 31 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -30 -28 -38 -44 -35 -45 -41 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -24 -17 -23 -14 0 14 36 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 3 4 5 4 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 170 212 254 310 370 424 464 535 598 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.1 107.7 108.4 109.0 110.4 111.6 112.7 113.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 9 16 18 9 6 7 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -20. -25. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -28. -35. -39. -42. -44. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.8 106.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX