* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * XAVIER EP252018 11/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 27 29 32 35 37 43 55 62 69 70 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -5 -9 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 231 230 227 223 222 221 225 223 239 246 250 256 263 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.2 26.5 27.1 27.5 27.8 23.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 131 130 126 123 128 135 140 144 106 124 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 5 6 4 5 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 30 27 28 28 28 27 29 27 28 36 46 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -49 -43 -32 -34 -22 -23 -7 27 26 -7 -54 -25 200 MB DIV -34 -21 -4 -5 -8 38 20 29 13 12 7 5 -13 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 5 5 2 0 -5 -3 -3 16 35 26 LAND (KM) 343 383 413 401 378 325 254 108 102 -67 -342 -267 81 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 20.1 20.9 22.0 22.9 23.9 25.3 27.1 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.0 109.4 109.8 110.1 110.9 111.2 110.4 108.5 106.2 103.9 100.1 94.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 8 11 12 15 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 14 10 8 6 7 9 27 16 16 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -17. -31. -45. -59. -66. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -18. -26. -35. -43. -53. -59. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 108.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP252018 XAVIER 11/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.98 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP252018 XAVIER 11/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX