* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PSTEST AL882019 04/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 56 54 48 44 37 28 22 19 18 19 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 56 54 48 44 37 28 22 19 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 62 60 57 51 45 40 38 35 33 32 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 47 41 40 44 43 34 26 48 53 31 31 21 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 19 3 0 -8 7 3 9 -5 SHEAR DIR 230 228 222 220 217 202 10 22 33 358 340 301 266 SST (C) 22.6 22.4 21.4 21.3 20.0 17.7 16.8 16.7 16.2 16.8 18.1 19.5 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 90 91 88 89 85 77 72 68 71 75 78 81 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 84 83 84 81 73 67 62 67 71 74 76 79 200 MB T (C) -59.1 -59.3 -58.8 -57.9 -57.6 -56.4 -59.0 -61.0 -60.7 -59.8 -60.0 -59.5 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 700-500 MB RH 33 34 38 43 44 55 54 47 45 30 23 18 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 1 17 33 56 71 -39 -89 -122 -125 -118 -84 -63 200 MB DIV 33 35 16 12 48 5 -21 -70 11 -49 -35 -65 -50 700-850 TADV -7 -19 -36 -34 -31 7 27 -4 -22 -46 -49 -35 -31 LAND (KM) 1980 1964 1937 1908 1859 1637 1357 1269 1452 1826 1897 1709 1617 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 30.1 31.2 32.8 37.5 40.8 41.8 41.0 39.0 35.0 30.8 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 48.5 46.3 43.6 41.0 37.6 38.3 38.7 36.8 33.3 31.3 31.3 31.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 17 23 26 28 23 11 3 12 20 22 19 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -20. -28. -32. -35. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -12. -16. -23. -32. -38. -41. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.8 50.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882019 PSTEST 04/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882019 PSTEST 04/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882019 PSTEST 04/18/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 59 56 54 48 44 37 28 22 19 18 19 18HR AGO 60 59 58 55 53 47 43 36 27 21 18 17 18 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 45 41 34 25 19 16 15 16 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 42 38 31 22 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT