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Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019

Pablo continues to exhibit a tight circulation with an occasional
eye feature evident in satellite images, which is why the system is
classified a tropical storm.  However, a larger look at the east
Atlantic reveals that Pablo is a tiny feature within a broad
extratropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt,
which is based on a recent ASCAT-C overpass that showed a small
area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center.  It should be
noted that a much larger area of winds of about the same strength,
associated with the parent extratropical low, exist to the north and
west of Pablo.

The small tropical storm is moving east-southeastward at 8 kt as
the overall trough continues to dig in that direction.  A turn to
the east should occur by early Saturday, followed by a faster
northeastward or north-northeastward motion by Saturday night,
taking the cyclone across the Azores.  By the end of the weekend and
early next week, a slower northward motion seems likely before the
storm is absorbed by another extratropical low to its west.  The NHC
track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Pablo could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it
remains in unstable conditions and over waters that should support
some convection.  However, the system is expected to move over
sharply colder waters Saturday night and Sunday, and that should
cause Pablo to lose its tropical characteristics.  The models show
the extratropical low dissipating or becoming absorbed by another
extratropical low in a little more than 3 days.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products.  Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 35.5N  31.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 35.6N  28.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 37.7N  25.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 41.2N  22.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  28/0000Z 44.0N  21.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  29/0000Z 47.3N  20.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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