ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022019 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 02 2019 Barbara is a large and powerful hurricane. The latest ASCAT scatterometer data confirms that tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 160 n mi from the center, while the hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 n mi from the center. A very impressive outflow channel exists over nearly a 20 degree swath of ocean to the north of the cyclone. There are at least two mesocyclones evident in the well-defined eye, and cloud tops are colder than -70 degrees C in most of the eyewall. A compromise between the subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and the objective estimates of CIMSS ADT and SATCON yield an initial intensity of 120 kt for this advisory. Barbara continues to move toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 12 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge extending from the west coast of the United States westward across the eastern Pacific. Barbara will turn northwestward in 36 to 48 hours as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, once the cyclone weakens to a shallow system, it should turn back westward steered by the low-level flow as per the majority of the track guidance. There is still a small window of opportunity today and this evening for additional strengthening of Barbara, while it remains over SSTs greater than 28 deg C and in a low shear environment. The SSTs ahead of Barbara start to decline Wednesday morning due to the forecast track taking the hurricane over progressively cooler waters of about 26.5 deg C in 24 hours, and near 25 deg C in 72 hours. In addition, the cyclone will be approaching a more stable airmass and moving into increasing southwesterly vertical shear within a few days. All of these conditions suggest that Barbara should begin a slow weakening trend on Wednesday, with the weakening accelerating after 48 hours. By the time Barbara reaches the Central Pacific, it is likely to be a tropical storm or even a remnant low. NOTE: Beginning this hurricane season, all National Hurricane Center eastern Pacific advisory products that utilize local time, and the corresponding graphical products, will use Hawaiian Standard Time (HST) instead of Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) or Standard Time (PST) if the final forecast point is west of 140W. Since Barbara's day 5 official forecast point is now west of 140W, advisory products are now being issued in Hawaiian Standard Time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 12.9N 123.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.4N 124.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.2N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.4N 130.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 18.6N 134.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 19.3N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi NNNN